Australia and China are Back in Business but Tensions Remain

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Australia promises to restore some stability to a fraught relationship, but divergent values and different worldviews means there will be no return to the warmth of the past, writes Roger Lee Huang.

Mature, productive, and stable. This was Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s refrain about the state of Australian-China relations following the conclusion of Wang Yi’s visit to Canberra for the 7^th Australia-China Foreign and Strategic Dialogue.

As the first Chinese foreign minister, and the most senior member of the Chinese Communist Party to visit Australia in seven-years, Wang’s visit was highly symbolic and a painstakingly curated affair. Besides meeting with his Australian counterpart, Wang also had several seemingly cordial meetings with Australian politicians, including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, members of the Australia-China Parliamentary Friendship Group, and with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton and shadow foreign minister Simon Birmingham.

The latter meeting was apparently at the invitation of the Opposition Leader, where Dutton, contrary to his hawkish persona spoke of the honour and pleasure of meeting Wang Yi while praising Australia’s “amazing Chinese diaspora community,” a nod to the Liberal Party’s recognition that it needs to soften its anti-China stance in the aftermath of the party’s 2022 electoral defeat.

Another small select group, including business leaders, think tank leaders and academics also met Wang, in a closed-door roundtable organised by the Australia China Business Council. Professor James Laurenceson came out of the meeting concluding that Penny Wong and Wang Yi appeared to be very much on the same page and  bilateral relations were “stable and optimistic.” Plans are already being made in Canberra for an anticipated visit by Premier Li Qiang to Australia later in the year.

This carefully managed trip was not without controversies. At the invitation of the Chinese delegation, vociferous AUKUS detractor former Prime Minister Paul Keating met Wang in a private meeting at the Chinese Consulate in Sydney. This is part of China’s longstanding practice to cultivate so-called “old friends,” elite individuals that are perceived to be sympathetic to China’s worldviews and interests. China’s calculated move not only signals  China’s anger over the AUKUS deal but is also meant to sow dissension within the internal politics of the Australian Labor Party. Wang Yi’s decision not to attend a post-dialogue press conference meant that the Australian public missed an important opportunity to learn directly from him about China’s rationale for its escalating aggressive grey zone activities in the Taiwan Straits and the Indo-Pacific, its questionable human rights record, and the record-speed passage of the draconian Article 23 national security law in Hong Kong. More importantly perhaps for Australians, Wang’s purposeful avoidance of the Australian press prevented any awkward questions about China’s decision to hand down a suspended death sentence to Australian citizen, Yang Hengjun, therefore avoiding a potential confrontation such as that of Wang’s infamous lashing out at a Canadian reporter in Ottawa in 2016. In short, measures were made to ensure Wang’s visit projected confidence that bilateral relations were back on track, and both countries were happy to return to business.

To that end, China had, prior to announcing Wang’s visit, indicated that it was likely that sanctions on Australian wine, could soon be lifted. Other trade tariffs, such as those on Australian lobsters and beef, presently remain, but could also be lifted by the Chinese as part of its diplomatic and economic toolbox in their dealings with Australia. These Australian industries were all caught in the estimated $20 billion of trade losses due to barriers imposed by China at the lowest point of Australia-China relations during Scott Morrisson’s prime ministership. In other words, China is slowly dismantling sanctions designed to coerce and pressure Australia.

It is debatable whether China’s economic coercion has affected Canberra’s foreign policy calculus, with Penny Wong quick to deny any quid pro quo was offered to improve ties. Australia’s recent decision to abandon its anti-dumping action against Chinese wind turbines, was touted by Chinese state media as a “good gesture” from Australia. The ALP government’s decision to move away from their predecessor’s counterproductive megaphone diplomacy, is matched by a more cautious and less confrontational approach in their disputes with China, for example privately communicating Australians’ “shock” at Yang Hengjun’s capital punishment sentence, contrary to the more assertive actions of Australia’s traditional allies such as the United States.

Divergent values and different worldviews mean that Australia-China relations, however, will not return to the status quo ante. After all, Wong herself has stated, “China will always be China, and Australia will always be Australia.” There is no illusion from either side that fundamental differences can be resolved, especially as policymakers from both countries increasingly view these disagreements via a national security lens.

It would not have escaped China’s attention that immediately after Wang’s departure, the British Foreign Secretary David Cameron, and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps were in Canberra for the Australian-UK Ministerial Consultations. Just days after Wang’s upbeat whirlwind trip to Canberra, Australia stood with the UK to publicly reaffirm their commitment to the AUKUS partnership, while calling out Chinese coercion that could undermine peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Australia-China relations may have matured somewhat under the Albanese government, yet it remains to be seen whether stable and productive bilateral ties can be sustained in an increasingly turbulent world.

Roger Lee Huang is a senior lecturer in the Department of Security Studies and Criminology at Macquarie University.