India-Pakistan: Can dialogue work?

On 22 April, a terrorist attack targeted a tourist resort in Pahalgam, a prominent destination in the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The incident resulted in 26 deaths and reignited tensions between India and Pakistan, with New Delhi attributing the attack to cross-border terrorism allegedly supported by Islamabad. This development has once again brought the two South Asian rivals to the brink of war. By critically examining the dynamics of cross-border terrorism alongside the history of peace dialogues and bilateral negotiations, this article seeks to analyse the evolving security landscape and assess the broader implications for regional stability.

Allegations of Cross-Border Terrorism

Prior to the Pahalgam incident, several prominent terrorist attacks in India had significantly shaped India-Pakistan relations, often leading to severe diplomatic and military tensions. One of the earliest came on 13 December 2001 when five armed militants stormed the Indian parliament, killing multiple security personnel. India blamed Pakistan-based groups Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), prompting a massive troop mobilisation under Operation Parakram that resulted in a 10-month-long military standoff. 

Then, between 26 and 29 November 2008, gunmen from Pakistan killed 166 people in a coordinated assault across key Mumbai landmarks. India held LeT responsible and accused Pakistan’s intelligence agencies of complicity, leading to heightened military preparedness, although conflict was averted through international diplomatic pressure. The most serious escalation occurred after the 2019 Pulwama attack, where a suicide bomber killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel. JeM claimed responsibility, and India responded with airstrikes on a purported JeM camp in Balakot, Pakistan. Pakistan’s retaliatory airstrikes and the brief capture of Indian pilot Abhinandan Varthaman raised fears of war between two nuclear powers, though de-escalation was achieved through intense diplomatic engagement as Pakistan returned the pilot through its land border with India.

Pakistan denies any involvement in cross-border terrorism, but it has repeatedly accused India of this, particularly in the restive province of Balochistan. The attack on the Jaffar Express in Balochistan in March, which resulted in significant civilian casualties, once again heightened tensions, with Pakistani authorities blaming Indian-backed proxies. This claim follows earlier high-profile cases, most notably the 2016 capture of Kulbhushan Jadhav, an alleged Indian spy and naval officer, who Pakistan asserts was orchestrating espionage and sabotage activities within its borders. Islamabad maintains that such incidents underscore a broader pattern of Indian interference designed to foment unrest and undermine Pakistan’s internal security, a narrative consistently denied by New Delhi but central to Pakistan’s diplomatic messaging.

Peace Dialogues

The history of peace dialogues and confidence-building measures (CBMs) between India and Pakistan demonstrates that despite deep-rooted mistrust and recurring hostilities, both sides recognise the high costs of war and have been willing to engage in meaningful processes to reduce tensions. The Composite Dialogue Process (1997–2008) covered eight critical issues, including Kashmir and terrorism, and led to tangible CBMs, particularly in trade and people-to-people contact, until it was derailed by the 2008 Mumbai attacks. 

The Agra Summit in 2001 and backchannel diplomacy between 2004 and 2007 underscored both the challenges and possibilities of compromise, with the latter nearly producing a breakthrough on Kashmir. Dialogues resumed with the Thimphu Talks in 2011 and the Ufa meeting in 2015, though both faced setbacks due to terrorism-related disagreements. 

Notably, the Kartarpur Corridor initiative (2018–present) has stood out as a successful religious CBM, facilitating Sikh pilgrimages even amid political tensions. These examples collectively show that India and Pakistan, despite persistent disputes and tensions, have a record of engagement that demonstrates their mutual awareness of the severe consequences of conflict.

The Current Situation

On 7 May, India claimed to have attacked several terrorist hideouts in Pakistan using missiles. This was followed by dozens of Israeli manufactured drones reaching different parts of Pakistan on 8 May. Pakistan claimed that there was an intense dogfight involving air forces of both countries in which it had brought down several Indian fighter jets, including the freshly procured Rafaels from France. During 9-10 May the situation worsened as there were several attacks on Pakistan’s air bases to which Pakistan responded. This is when the international community apprehended the severity and escalation risks, leading Washington to press New Delhi and Islamabad to accept. an immediate ceasefire on 10 May. With each side accusing the other of ceasefire violations, there remains a grave threat to regional stability. However, President Donald Trump has sent a clear message that the US is willing to mediate to pave the way for a dialogue between India and Pakistan.

The potential for future conflict remains as we are yet to hear from Islamabad and New Delhi on their willingness to engage in a meaningful dialogue like the Composite Peace Dialogue Process which was initiated before the Kargil War. The recent clashes have demonstrated both the capacity for rapid escalation and its limits – the reluctance to launch a full-fledge war. For now, they have re-established much-needed deterrence. There are some initial positive signs with India unblocking the flow of waters to Pakistan after its earlier suspension of the Indus Water Treaty. Disruption of the flow of water can be disastrous for water-deprived Pakistan. 

While the United States initially opted to refrain from direct involvement in the India-Pakistan conflict following the Pahalgam incident, other regional actors pursued backchannel diplomatic efforts. Notably, several Gulf states, longstanding partners of both India and Pakistan, played a mediating role behind the scenes. These efforts enabled a rare exchange between the national security advisors of the two adversaries, underscoring the potential of regional diplomacy. However, these efforts also revealed the limitations of such actors in securing durable outcomes, highlighting that the United States retains a comparatively stronger capacity to serve as an effective mediator in South Asian crises. 

Dr. Zahid Shahab Ahmed is a leading scholar of peace and security in South Asia. He is currently Associate Professor of Strategic and Security Studies at the UAE’s National Defence College in Abu Dhabi. He is the author of Regionalism and Regional Security in South Asia: The Role of SAARC (2013, Routledge).