Duterte in The Hague: Rivalries and Realignments in the May Elections

With former president Rodrigo Duterte in The Hague facing charges of crimes against humanity for his violent war on drugs campaign, a very delayed justice appears to be coming for the victims of extrajudicial killings and their families.  As the Philippines heads to congressional and local elections in May, some features of the political landscape will shift, but others will remain unchanged.  The Duterte political dynasty will not be easily diminished in local politics with three generations running in Davao. At the national level, two Duterte-allied politicians will most likely be re-elected in the Senate, but it is uncertain how much influence they can wield in the forthcoming impeachment of vice-president Sara Duterte. 

With a quiver in his voice, Rodrigo Duterte replied to confirm his name and date and place of birth before the International Criminal Court (ICC) on 14 March. Dressed in a blue suit and tie, the former strongman appeared frail and tentative.  Watching this unfold alongside their human rights lawyers, the families of the victims of Duterte’s murderous anti-drug war campaign exulted in the sudden shift in the demeanour of the former president. Gone were the fiery and expletive-filled speeches and the bravado to admit that he ordered the police to kill drug suspects.  His signature defiance seems to have dissipated, having once threatened to “slap” ICC judges if he were “dragged” before them.  Seeing the former president meekly sitting with his barely audible answers drew rage from one of the widows, who recalled how Duterte laughed in a congressional hearing at the mention of the victims of extrajudicial killings.  Suddenly, the belligerent and irreverent Duterte, who publicly goaded the police to kill, is appearing as a victim. 

While it might be true that politics and rivalry between political dynasties facilitated Duterte’s transfer to The Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity, it is still a relief for the families that they might see justice in their lifetime — a rare occurrence given that justice in the Philippines is often slow and favours the rich, powerful and influential.

What does the ICC detention and trial of Duterte mean for the upcoming May mid-term elections?  It is unlikely that the Duterte dynasty will diminish its political power in Davao. Five family members, across three generations, are running in local elections, including Rodrigo Duterte himself as mayor, his son Baste as vice-mayor and older son Paolo is running for re-election as congressman for the first district of Davao.  Part of the horizontal expansion of the Duterte dynasty involves fielding their younger generation.  Two grandsons are running for public office as councillor and congressman for the second district of Davao.  Davao is the Duterte’s bailiwick, and the family remains widely popular. Even as he is detained in The Hague, Rodrigo Duterte is confident he will win the mayoralty of Davao, a position he held for seven three-year terms before he became president. Sara Duterte told reporters her father did not see the ICC proceedings as an impediment to running and winning as mayor. She quoted him saying, “he is not busy anyway since he is not yet mayor of Davao, so he might as well stay (at the ICC).” 

At the national level, Sara Duterte, in principle, still has three years to go as vice president. However, she faces an impeachment trial in the Senate after the House of Representatives voted to impeached her in February.  Credible polling shows that only two Duterte allies look like winning senate seats.  Senator Bong Go topped the February pre-election survey before Duterte’s ICC arrest.  Former Philippine National Police chief, Senator Ronald “Bato” de la Rosa, who is up for re-election, is ranked fifth in the same survey.  When de la Rosa was asked about innocent people, including children being killed in police operations at the height of the drug war, he dismissed them as “collateral damage.”   Even if both these Duterte allies win in the Senate elections, it is worth noting that this is a house divided.  There are two camps within the Duterte political family. One is composed of Sara and her siblings, while the other is composed of Go and De La Rosa, who are identified with Duterte’s common-law wife, Honeylet Avancena.  Allies of President Marcos will most likely dominate the Senate once impeachment hearings for the vice president start in July. 

However, the Duterte dynasty continues to have a strong base of support.  And since the impeachment moves against Sara Duterte and detention of Rodrigo Duterte, they have rallied their supporters to “bring home” the former president. Protests and rallies were being organised to coincide with Rodrigo Duterte’s birthday on 28 March and are collectively called “A Global Tribute to Tatay Digong” (tatay translating roughly as ‘daddy’ and Digong being a popular nickname for the ex-president). Since the arrest of Duterte, disinformation has flooded social media.  Government websites have been hacked and defaced. The question is whether the mobilisation and support for Duterte can be sustained. The fissures and fractures within the Duterte dynasty will likely become more evident in the coming months as the family navigates politics with the patriarch in detention. 

What does this mean for voters?  The May congressional and local elections will be highly polarised and contested. Electoral violence may increase in some areas.  While some believe Marcos Jr. has been deft in diminishing the Duterte dynasty, it remains to be seen how the people will react and mobilise in the elections.  The support of political clans will play a big role in the fortunes of both the Dutertes and the Marcoses.  As the wheels of justice turn in The Hague, it will be politics as usual in the Philippines.

Cleo Anne A. Calimbahin is a Senior Research Fellow at the Australian National University Philippine Institute.  She is a Professor of Political Science at the De La Salle University-Manila.