ASEAN’s Image Fades but Expectations Remain High

The State of Southeast Asia Survey 2025, published by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, underscores ASEAN’s ongoing importance — while also revealing a dip in perceptions of its influence. Nevertheless, survey respondents’ expectations of ASEAN’s role in economic integration and multilateral diplomacy affirm its continued relevance in an increasingly fractured global landscape.

ASEAN has long seen itself as a stabilising force, but the survey shows a slight decline in confidence in the bloc’s ability to uphold international law and a rules-based order (Chart 1). This survey was conducted on 3 January – 15 February 2025, coinciding with a leadership transition in the United States, a prolonged economic slowdown in China, and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. This latest poll found that 23.1 per cent of respondents trust ASEAN’s leadership in this area, down from 26.9 per cent in 2024. Still, ASEAN remains the second most trusted actor after the US (26.5 per cent), which is seen as the top defender of global governance.

Trust in ASEAN’s political and strategic influence has also fallen (Chart 2), with only 15.6 per cent of respondents believing it has substantial sway, down from 20.0 per cent last year. Nevertheless, ASEAN enjoys the most positive overall perception among the major powers such as the US and China, with 69.9 per cent of respondents welcoming its influence, indicating strong regional support for its diplomatic role.

Beyond political and security issues, ASEAN remains the strongest advocate of global free trade (Chart 3). This year, 23.8 per cent of respondents trust ASEAN to uphold free trade principles—slightly down from 29.7 per cent in 2024, but still the highest among major economic players. Interestingly, confidence in India and Australia has grown.

ASEAN is also seen as the third most influential economic power, with 14.8 per cent of respondents holding this view, a slight drop from 16.8 per cent in 2024 (Chart 4). However, more respondents now welcome ASEAN’s growing economic influence—68.5 per cent in 2025, up from 59.0 per cent last year—indicating stronger regional support despite its modest decline in perceived influence.

The decline in confidence in ASEAN’s strategic and economic leadership can be attributed to several factors. These include perceived inaction on strategic issues, such as its ambiguous stance on major regional challenges — particularly in responding to China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. ASEAN has also made slow progress on its professed goals of economic integration, cross-border infrastructure, labour mobility, and intra-ASEAN trade, which continues to account for only 20–25 per cent of the region’s total trade. Additionally, the bloc’s muted response to the crisis in Myanmar has reinforced perceptions of the region’s backsliding on human rights and democratic norms.

ASEAN has recently seen greater involvement by its member states in minilateral groupings, for example, the US-Philippines-Japan trilateral partnership and Indonesia’s accession to BRICS. This trend, driven by national interests, is increasingly viewed as sidelining ASEAN and may be contributing to declining confidence in its leadership. Survey responses reflect this ambivalence: 26.2  per cent of respondents believe ASEAN must strengthen its convening power and normative influence to ensure its members remain committed and discourage them from joining other groupings, while 23.8 per cent argue that ASEAN should be cautious about joining groupings that could undermine its centrality.

To ensure its continued relevance, ASEAN must pursue institutional reforms that enable it to address global challenges more effectively.

These divisions mirror broader concerns about ASEAN’s capacity to respond to shifting geopolitical dynamics. A majority of respondents (35.0 per cent) view the organisation as slow and ineffective in addressing fast-moving developments, while 29.8 per cent believe it is becoming a battleground for great power rivalry. Both findings point to growing doubts about ASEAN’s continued relevance in a more contested regional order.

To ensure its continued relevance, ASEAN must pursue institutional reforms that enable it to address global challenges more effectively. SSEA2025 respondents were nearly evenly split on how ASEAN should enhance its resilience. The largest proportion (31.7 per cent) emphasised the need for the region to improve its strategic image, particularly in resolving differences over the Myanmar crisis and tensions in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, 30.2 per cent highlighted the importance of functional economic cooperation, especially in boosting intra-regional trade and investment.

Between managing political and economic issues, Malaysia’s ASEAN Chairmanship this year appears to have a stronger focus on the economic front. It is expected to prioritise strengthening intra-ASEAN trade, particularly through the completion of the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) upgrade and the substantial conclusion of the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) negotiations.

The ASEAN DEFA, which is poised to become the world’s first region-wide digital economy agreement, has generated optimism. Most survey respondents (37.3 per cent) believe the agreement will help enhance digital capabilities and expand regional digital trade; a substantial share (29.4 per cent) regard deeper cooperation in digital trade initiatives as its main contribution. Either way, DEFA can be leveraged for economic growth.

On the external front, key trade agreements, such as the signing of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) upgrade, the substantial conclusion of the review of the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA), and the declaration on ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Economic Cooperation are expected to broaden ASEAN’s trade connectivity amid ongoing global supply chain disruptions.

In response to rising protectionism and nationalism — concerns intensified by US tariff policies under President Trump — many survey respondents (40.2 per cent) believe ASEAN should accelerate regional integration, deepen cooperation with like-minded external partners (30.9 per cent), and strengthen institutions that uphold the rule of law (24.1 per cent).

The State of Southeast Asia Survey 2025 highlights ASEAN’s enduring relevance, even as confidence in its leadership wanes. Its future will hinge on its ability to adapt, maintain its open and inclusive stances, and assert influence in shaping global stability.

Melinda Martinus is the Lead Researcher in Socio-cultural Affairs at the ASEAN Studies Centre, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.

This article originally appeared on Fulcrum on 10 April 2025.