Professor, Harvard University
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Preventing a war over Taiwan requires making the island a lethal “porcupine” that China cannot easily swallow, showing the US and its allies can mount a credible defence, and convincing Taiwan’s leaders to avoid a declaration of independence, writes Joseph S. Nye, Jr.
While former US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping each played important roles in ending Sino-American engagement, the death of the policy started with the 2008 global financial crisis. That is when Chinese elites concluded that America was in decline, and that China need no longer bide its time.
The United States can reduce the risk of either a cold war or a hot war with China by strong alliances, investment in itself, and preventing unnecessary provocations, but it must also avoid the trap of familiar and misleading historical analogies, writes Joseph S. Nye Jr.
Despite the fanfare of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington, India and the US seem fated not for marriage but for a long-term partnership – one that might last only as long as both countries remain preoccupied with China, writes Joseph S. Nye, Jr.
While the US-China rivalry may disrupt global economic arrangements, it certainly does not augur a sharp decline in human interdependence, writes Joseph S. Nye.