Adjunct Professor, Griffith Asia Institute – Griffith University
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Is world opinion shifting on lethal aid to Myanmar’s opposition movement?
As the strategic picture in Myanmar shows signs of changing with a better organised, better armed and more proficient resistance, Andrew Selth asks, could foreign governments consider some fresh options against the coup leaders?
The competing public commentary on Myanmar
A year after the coup that restored the military to power in Myanmar, Andrew Selth finds that two schools of analysis have taken root – one optimistic, the other pessimistic. But regardless of the perspective, he argues effective responses to the military takeover call for “accurate information, open minds, and clear thinking”.
Could defections threaten the survival of Myanmar’s military regime?
Myanmar's generals have been shaken by a string of defections from the security forces, but this does not spell the end of the military regime. Andrew Selth argues it would take the defection of high-ranked officers and major combat units to seriously weaken the junta's grip on power.
Myanmar: no light on the horizon
The prospect of popular ‘democratic’ revolution displacing the military in Myanmar looks increasingly remote. Veteran analyst Andrew Selth argues the more likely scenario is for Myanmar to lurch back into isolation as a poor, “bitterly divided and broken-backed authoritarian state”.
Aung San Suu Kyi's uncertain fate
The woman at the centre of Myanmar’s crisis, State Counsellor Aung Sun Suu Kyi, has been jailed and cut off from supporters since the February coup. Veteran analyst Andrew Selth asks what lies ahead for the country’s most popular political figure.