Adjunct Professor, Griffith Asia Institute – Griffith University,
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Could defections threaten the survival of Myanmar’s military regime?
Myanmar's generals have been shaken by a string of defections from the security forces, but this does not spell the end of the military regime. Andrew Selth argues it would take the defection of high-ranked officers and major combat units to seriously weaken the junta's grip on power.
Myanmar: no light on the horizon
The prospect of popular ‘democratic’ revolution displacing the military in Myanmar looks increasingly remote. Veteran analyst Andrew Selth argues the more likely scenario is for Myanmar to lurch back into isolation as a poor, “bitterly divided and broken-backed authoritarian state”.
Aung San Suu Kyi's uncertain fate
The woman at the centre of Myanmar’s crisis, State Counsellor Aung Sun Suu Kyi, has been jailed and cut off from supporters since the February coup. Veteran analyst Andrew Selth asks what lies ahead for the country’s most popular political figure.
Myanmar and the lessons of history
The brutal military crackdown in Myanmar has echoes of the past. Andrew Selth, a long time watcher of the country’s affairs, argues that should temper our optimism – the lesson of history is that the generals will be hard to dislodge and the international community has limited options to remove them.