Myanmar’s civil war and the myth of military victory
Analysts of the civil war in Myanmar are daring to entertain the prospect of the junta’s defeat. But Andrew Selth argues total victory for either side is likely to prove elusive.
Adjunct Professor, Griffith Asia Institute – Griffith University
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Analysts of the civil war in Myanmar are daring to entertain the prospect of the junta’s defeat. But Andrew Selth argues total victory for either side is likely to prove elusive.
As the strategic picture in Myanmar shows signs of changing with a better organised, better armed and more proficient resistance, Andrew Selth asks, could foreign governments consider some fresh options against the coup leaders?
A year after the coup that restored the military to power in Myanmar, Andrew Selth finds that two schools of analysis have taken root – one optimistic, the other pessimistic. But regardless of the perspective, he argues effective responses to the military takeover call for “accurate information, open minds, and clear thinking”.
Myanmar's generals have been shaken by a string of defections from the security forces, but this does not spell the end of the military regime. Andrew Selth argues it would take the defection of high-ranked officers and major combat units to seriously weaken the junta's grip on power.
The prospect of popular ‘democratic’ revolution displacing the military in Myanmar looks increasingly remote. Veteran analyst Andrew Selth argues the more likely scenario is for Myanmar to lurch back into isolation as a poor, “bitterly divided and broken-backed authoritarian state”.