Japan’s ruling party leadership contest underscores political uncertainty

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect a new president on 4 October, following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to step down after less than a year in office. His tenure became unsustainable after the party’s defeat in the upper house earlier this year and in the lower house of the national Diet last year, both under his leadership, leaving the government in a minority in both houses.

Five candidates are contesting the LDP presidential election: Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 44, former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, 64, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 64, former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi, 50, and former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, 69. All of them ran in the previous election, with Takaichi advancing to the runoff against Ishiba. Voting and counting are scheduled for 4 October.

The leadership election will be decided by votes from 295 LDP Diet members and an equal number of votes from party members nationwide, allocated through a conversion formula. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, a runoff between the top two contenders will determine the winner. The new leader must be endorsed as prime minister by the lower house, unlike in the past when the LDP president automatically became prime minister, with the LDP commanding a majority in the house.

Although poll results may shift before voting day, Takaichi and Koizumi are currently leading in public polls and are seen as the front-runners. The remaining three candidates trail far behind.

Some suggest Hayashi should not be ruled out, although he remains far behind in the race at this stage. Proficient in English and Harvard-educated, he is one of the most experienced LDP figures serving in both domestic and foreign policy portfolios.

Koizumi, the youngest candidate and son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, is known for his strong communication skills, but he exposed weaknesses in debate during the previous race, where he finished third and failed to reach the runoff. Learning from that experience, he has softened his reformist stance to gain broader support within the LDP. His campaign now emphasises economic policy, particularly addressing wage stagnation and the rising cost of living. Still, doubts remain about his leadership capacity, as he lacks experience in key government or party positions, raising questions about his ability to lead the LDP effectively.

Takaichi is the LDP’s staunchest conservative and enjoys strong support within the party’s right-wing faction. She advocates proactive fiscal measures and has pledged to continue the policies of former prime minister Abe. However, she remains unpopular in China and South Korea, both of which have criticised Japanese politicians for visiting the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, Takaichi among them.

Both Takaichi and Koizumi would carry a ‘historic’ label if they succeed: Koizumi as the youngest prime minister, and Takaichi as the first female prime minister of Japan.

The two key factors in determining the leadership election are the preferences of party members and the decisions of influential LDP figures, such as former prime ministers Fumio Kishida and Taro Aso. These factors will particularly become crucial at the runoff, should it go to that stage.

With no single party commanding a majority in the lower house, the prospect of a return to revolving door of prime ministers, a phenomenon occurring between 2006 and 2012, with six prime ministers in six years, is high. It was Shinzo Abe’s second entry in 2012 that gave Japanese politics stability, with Abe serving from 2012 until 2020, becoming the longest-serving prime minister in Japan’s parliamentary history.

After Abe’s resignation in 2020, three prime ministers took office and resigned, two within one year, making the pattern consistent with the average political life of prime ministers in Japan, two years.

However, with two exceptions, the LDP has since 1955 maintained its majority in the lower house, the more powerful of the two houses in the national Diet. The LDP lost power only twice; once in 1993 and a second time in 2009, but the party was able to bounce back as the opposition coalitions were too messy and could not hold on to power because of frequent changes in prime ministers and policy paralysis.

The situation today is vastly different as the ruling LDP coalition does not have a majority in either house of the national parliament. “Divided politics” in a “growth economy”  worked in the past. Today, the economy is not robust, and ordinary Japanese people harbour serious concerns about the rising cost of living and deteriorating security environment, arising from Japan’s relations with neighbouring countries. Divided politics won’t work when there are enormous economic and foreign policy challenges.

There are several possible scenarios.

First, the LDP and centre-right Komeito Party remain a minority ruling coalition, advance policy by securing the cooperation of opposition parties on a policy-by-policy basis and address voter distrust over past financial scandals and the LDP’s relationship with the Unification Church. Still, political instability likely persists, as under the Ishiba administration.

Second, the LDP and Komeito form a coalition government with at least one opposition party that broadly agrees on an agenda.  Securing a majority in both houses of the Diet allows them to manage Diet deliberations. However, if the LDP fails to recover its approval ratings and if emerging opposition parties gain more seats in the next lower house election, the coalition likely collapses.

Third, the opposition forms a coalition, as together opposition parties hold a majority in both houses of parliament. However, this scenario is the least likely of the three given historical divisions within opposition parties and policy differences on key issues such as the Constitution and foreign and security affairs.

How the newly elected president of the LDP will deal with the existing political complexities remains unknown. Between now and the day the vote is cast, there will be serious political horse trading and deals inside closed party rooms and exclusive restaurants and clubs.

The new leader’s challenge will be to maintain the support of competing LDP leaders and power brokers. More importantly, the leader must secure a stable coalition, manage the economy and diplomacy effectively, and take serious steps to reinvent and reform the LDP. If the party fails, Japan’s political future could become far bleaker than it is today.

Purnendra Jain FAHA FAIIA is emeritus professor in Asian Studies at the University of Adelaide and is a recipient of Japan’s Order of the Rising Sun, Gold Rays with Neck Ribbon.

Keiichi Imamura is a freelance journalist, currently pursuing a PhD at Waseda University in Tokyo.

Image: “Meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (dgjpn2502c1509)” by IAEA Imagebank, CC BY 2.0