Japan’s Ishiba living dangerously

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who took office late last year, has shown remarkable resilience in surviving politically against all odds. Few analysts thought he would remain in his position this long. But his determination to stay in office remains unshaken despite challenging political conditions. There does not seem to be an immediate threat to his leadership in the party room, nor is the opposition strong enough to move a no-confidence motion against him. However, given his weak base and calls from senior party leaders to resign, his position remains precarious. 

After becoming prime minister in October 2024, Ishiba took a political gamble by announcing a snap election for the House of Representatives, hoping to secure a mandate. However, the move backfired, and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner, the Komeito, lost their majority, leaving Ishiba’s political career uncertain. Despite the setback, when the House met to elect a prime minister, Ishiba defeated the opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP). 

Ishiba remained in office despite his party's poor electoral performance and minority status in the lower house. But he and his coalition partner faced two additional electoral setbacks.  

In June this year, less than a month before the crucial triennial upper house election, Ishiba and his coalition underperformed in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, a key barometer of their popularity. From that point, it appeared Ishiba and his coalition government were in serious trouble, with polls clearly indicating a loss of majority in the upper house. 

A few days before the upper house election in July, the approval rate for the Ishiba cabinet dipped far below the disapproval rate. As expected, the upper house election results brought a historic judgment on the LDP: for the first time since the party’s founding in 1955, a government led by the LDP is short of holding a majority in both houses, despite having remained in power almost continuously except in 1993 and from 2009 to 2012. 

Following these three defeats, calls for Ishiba’s resignation gained momentum during party meetings, including at a joint party parliamentary convention on August 8. However, Ishiba declined to resign, stating that he would continue his “responsibility to the country” to manage serious economic and social challenges that persist despite his success in winning a lower “reciprocal tariff” with the United States. 

While Ishiba is not out of the woods and the proverbial ‘sword of Damocles’ hangs over his head, his determination to continue remains undeterred. 

What makes Ishiba resist calls for resignation? 

Ishiba’s popularity has never been high since taking office, but it plummeted in July, just before the upper house election. However, the most recent NHK poll showed a rebound in support: 38% of respondents backed his cabinet, though this was still lower than the 45% who did not support it. Another poll by Jiji Press recorded a similar trend. Interestingly, when asked whether Ishiba should resign because of his poor performance in the upper house election, 39.9% of the respondents said he should not, while a smaller 36.9% said he should. Remarkably, a movement on social media with the hashtag ‘#Ishiba Don’t Quit’ trended, an unusual phenomenon, since such movements typically demand a leader’s resignation. Sixty-five percent of the LDP supporters oppose ‘removing Ishiba’, and the leader of the Komeito has also endorsed Ishiba. 

Alternatives to Ishiba appear limited now. If he is forced to resign, the new LDP leader will have to form a minority government, just like Ishiba’s government, and cooperate with opposition parties to pass legislation, since another snap election could be disastrous for the LDP. Voters are increasingly dissatisfied with the established parties—both the ruling LDP and the main opposition, the CDP. The electoral performances of both parties have been poor recently, and it is unlikely either will perform better than last time. This creates an opening for new and emerging opposition parties, which have already made notable electoral gains. 

In the recent past, several new parties have emerged, such as the Restoration Party (Ishin), the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and most recently the Sanseito, which has drawn global media attention.  

 Sanseito is a conservative party with a Trump-inspired, anti-globalist, 'Japanese first' agenda—a trend also witnessed in many European countries. The party has substantially increased its representation in the 248-seat upper house, rising from two seats in the previous election to 15 this time. Drawing on grassroots strength through local chapters of the party, an expanding membership base, a strong social media presence, and anti-foreigner rhetoric—framed against rising living costs caused by inflation and low wages—it has resonated with segments of society, particularly the youth, as well as conservative and uncommitted voters. Under its firebrand leader, Sohei Kamiya, the party has also expanded its electoral strength in local assemblies, growing from 12 members three years ago to 155 nationwide. Its conservative agenda includes constitutional revision, the restoration of imperial education, and the promotion of patriotism.  

New parties are not a new phenomenon in Japanese politics, but their impact on actual policy has been minimal, and they often stagnate or fade from the political scene after initial bursts of popularity. Will Sanseito be any different? Whether it becomes a genuine catalyst for change in Japanese politics remains to be seen. 

Weaknesses within the opposition parties, combined with rising popular and party support, allow Ishiba to continue in office.  

Ishiba also has managed foreign policy effectively, strengthening his political standing—particularly after first proposing and then withdrawing the idea of a NATO-like framework in Asia. While many countries were subjected to steep 'reciprocal tariffs' under the Trump administration, Japan’s multiple rounds of trade negotiations with the United States proved fruitful, reducing tariffs to 15% instead of the originally proposed 25%. Under Ishiba’s leadership, the Japan–US relationship appears healthy and resilient. 

A few weeks ago, a historic milestone was reached when the Australian government selected Japan’s Mogami-class frigates for the Royal Australian Navy. This deal not only boosted Japan’s defence industry but also underscored the strength of the Japan-Australia strategic partnership. Ishiba himself held a telephone conversation with his Australian counterpart, Anthony Albanese, to welcome the decision and highlight its significance for regional security. 

With a new president in South Korea, Tokyo-Seoul ties are on a positive trajectory as President Lee Jae Myung is scheduled to visit Tokyo for a summit meeting with Ishiba. On the 80th anniversary of the end of the Pacific War, Ishiba refrained from visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, where war dead are enshrined, as visits by ministers and prime ministers to the site often receive strong criticism from South Korea and China. Later this month, Ishiba will also host India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Tokyo. 

For now, the Ishiba government faces no serious foreign policy challenges, although the strategic environment in Japan’s immediate neighbourhood is unconducive, with China’s military assertiveness and North Korea’s nuclear sabre rattling. Furthermore, the US is likely to demand Japan to spend more than its planned 2% GDP on defence ) 

As for the economy—often stagnant and deflationary—it grew unexpectedly in the second quarter of 2025, with the GDP rising 1% on an annualised basis, giving Ishiba another boost. 

Many domestic and foreign policy factors work in favour of Ishiba. Yet, due to his poor electoral track record, some powerful anti-Ishiba LDP leaders are eager to unseat him, leaving it uncertain how long he can withstand calls for his resignation, with other LDP contenders waiting in the wings. Japanese politics thus remain marked by the persistent challenge of revolving-door prime ministers and the resulting instability, which affects policy directions. 

Purnendra Jain FAHA FAIIA is emeritus professor in Asian Studies at the University of Adelaide and is a recipient of Japan’s Order of the Rising Sun, Gold Rays with Neck Ribbon. 

Keiichi Imamura is a former NHK chief commentator. He is currently pursuing his Ph.D. at Waseda University in Tokyo.