Stepping up to Australia’s Climate-Refugee Conundrum

By Rose Hawkins
Master of Environment student, University of Melbourne

Should Australia reconsider its climate and refugee policies in the face of a future ‘wave’ of climate refugees?

Australia has a complicated relationship with both refugee and climate policy. An Australian fear of a ‘wave’ of uncontrolled migration has become entrenched in our political culture over the past two decades - and the future looks increasingly fractious. In the coming decades, climate change threatens to undermine Australia’s policy of offshore detention of asylum seekers on Pacific Islands, as the inhabitants of those islands may be forced to consider migration to escape increasing climate-driven hazards.

So is it time for Australia to reconcile its climate and refugee policies in a rapidly changing climate?

The origins of current refugee and climate policies

Nineteen years ago, on the morning of 7 October 2001, the Australian ship HMAS Adelaide attempted to turn the 'SIEV 4' (Suspected Illegal Entry Vehicle 4) back to Indonesia. The SIEV 4 was carrying 223 asylum seekers.

Footage soon emerged in the Australian media of a man holding a girl over the side of the SIEV 4, followed by images of children and adults in the water as the ship sank the next day. The Howard Government used the images as ‘evidence’ that asylum seekers had thrown their children overboard, seemingly risking children’s lives to increase the family’s chance of reaching Australia. Though a senate committee later found that this was not the case, the ‘Children Overboard’ affair was the beginning of two decades of increasingly harsh measures to enhance Australia’s border protection and deter asylum seekers from travelling here by boat.

Soon afterwards in 2002, the seeds of the federal government’s current climate policy were sown with former prime minister John Howard’s refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Australia has since attracted significant negative international attention for its treatment of refugees and asylum seekers, and its stance on climate change. When it comes to the phenomenon of ‘climate refugees’ who will be displaced by the impacts of climate change in the coming decades, these two issues intersect.

A future ‘wave’ of Pacific climate refugees?

By 2050, up to 300 million people around the world will have been displaced by climate change. The Indo-Pacific region will be disproportionately affected by climate change and resulting forced migration, with inhabitants of low-lying islands in the Pacific among the most vulnerable. Citizens of these countries will experience increasingly severe impacts of climate change in the coming years, and flow-on effects including changes in food and water security and climate-induced migration.

Pacific Islanders are already taking steps to prepare for an uncertain future. In 2014, the island nation of Kiribati purchased 20 square kilometres of land in Fiji, where it plans to relocate its people if sea level rise renders their homeland uninhabitable. Of course, Pacific Islanders would not choose migration as their first course of action. They may be faced with little choice in the decades to come, with sea levels in the Pacific projected to rise by up to 80cm by 2100.

Based on a moderate climate change project, 35% of Kiribati’s population, and 100% of Tuvaluans will be forced to migrate overseas by 2055, with Fiji as the country of choice for most. But Fiji has developed its own national framework for the internal relocation of its citizens in response to sudden-onset and long term climate-related hazards.

The Pacific Solution and the Pacific Step-Up

This presents a unique problem for Australia and its ‘Pacific Solution’, which was developed in response to the arrival of asylum seekers like those aboard the SIEV 4 in 2001. In the face of future climate-driven migration from the Pacific, Australia’s policy of detaining asylum seekers on Nauru and Papua New Guinea’s Manus Island cannot continue.

Both islands are already experiencing the impacts of climate change. Even in 2014, rising sea levels precluded the resettlement of asylum seekers on Manus Island, with coastal communities now at risk of losing their homes to coastal erosion. Meanwhile, 40% of Nauruans consider migration their most likely course of action if sea level rise and flooding continue. If this is the case, 24% have nominated Australia as their likely destination, though Fiji remains more popular. In a future where these islands are underwater and the people seeking asylum in Australia are citizens of the same island nations.

The government has committed $500 million over five years to support Pacific Island nations to build their climate resilience and disaster preparedness. This is part of Australia's ‘Pacific Step Up’, a broader range of initiatives designed to promote economic cultural links between Australia and its Pacific neighbours. Its climate change programs involve working with stakeholders in the Pacific mitigate the impacts of natural disasters and integrating climate change and disaster resilience measures into existing aid investments.

There does appear to be one instance in which the Australian government is currently open to migration from the Pacific. The Seasonal Workers Program has brought many migrant workers from the Pacific Islands to work in Australia’s agricultural sector. In fact, there are calls for to establish a special migration pathway for seasonal workers from the Pacific to work in Australia as the horticultural industry experiences labour shortages due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is some concern migrant workers from the Pacific will be deterred by the high cost of living in Australia and unscrupulous labour hire organisations that control their rentals  and other conditions.

The Seasonal Workers Program, and the Pacific Step Up more broadly, reflect Australia’s somewhat one-sided approach to its relationships with the Pacific Islands. In 2009, the federal government committed to assisting Pacific Island States to combat climate change based on ‘the region’s stated priorities and Australia’s capacity to assist’. More recently, Pacific Island Nations have indicated that, when it comes to climate change mitigation, they believe that Australia has not kept this promise.

Leaders and communities in the Pacific have consistently called for New Zealand, Australia and other wealthy nations to mitigate the impacts of climate change by reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. They see this as the first priority in acting on climate change, but with Australian politics trapped in a state of climate policy paralysis, action has seemed challenging.

The question of ‘Climate Refugees’

The term ‘climate refugees’ has faced legal questions in recent years, as it is not covered by the 1951 Refugee Convention. However, the UN General Assembly 2018 Global Compact on Refugees has acknowledged that events associated with climate change, natural disasters and environmental degradation combine with other drivers of displacement.

Now with its landmark ruling in January 2020, the UN Human Rights Commission has officially recognised that governments cannot return a person to their home country if their life would be threatened by the impacts of climate change.

New Zealand responded quickly to global developments, announcing a special humanitarian visa for Pacific Islanders displaced by climate change in 2017. Although praised around the world, the scheme held no appeal for Pacific Islanders who see migration as a last resort.

With its options for detaining asylum seekers in the Pacific threatened by the inundation of those islands, Australia may be forced to recognise climate refugees in the near future. Neighbouring countries in Southeast Asia may not be able to help, as they face their own waves of migration resulting from climate change and conflict.

Australia could show its commitment to the priorities of its ‘Pacific Island family’ by reducing its greenhouse gas emissions, supporting Pacific Islanders to adapt to climate change and planning for their dignified migration. This would represent a genuine Step Up in the Pacific.

Rose Hawkins is an intern at Asialink, completing her Master of Environment at the University of Melbourne.

Banner image: People seek shelter from Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston, Fiji - December 17, 2016. Credit: ChameleonsEye, Shutterstock.